Photo : Deutsche Welle
01 February 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #425
War in Ukraine: Day 342
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 31 January, Kyiv Post reported that the new conscription rules for Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) look to reduce the loopholes present and provided the reinforcements required for the AFU. The new rules highlight that an employer in sectors such as energy, arms, health and local government can exempt a worker from conscription if he is deemed to be working for a “war-critical job.” It also added that in an event of a person getting dismissed from a job in a critical sector, they will now be a potential draftee for the AFU.
On 31 January, Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba stressed that the main issue at the Ukraine-EU summit will be Ukraine’s accession to the EU at the earliest. Additionally, Kuleba highlighted that the summit will also focus on, the implementation of Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace formula and post-war reconstruction. It will also look into fresh EU sanctions on the missile, drone and nuclear industries, holding Russia accountable for its crimes, and the security situation in Ukraine. The Summit will be held on 03 February in Kyiv.
On the same day, Kuleba said that Ukraine will be receiving 120 to 140 tanks consisting of Leopard 2, Challenger 2 and M1 Abrams in the first wave of supplies. Kuleba said that an international tank coalition of 12 participants has been formed to strengthen Ukraine. He added: “It is too early to name all the coalition countries and their practical contributions because some of them have yet to make formal decisions in line with their internal procedures.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 31 January, the Bank of Russia said that Western financial institutions had around USD 81 billion belonging to Russian investors. The Bank’s investment department head Olga Shishlyannikova said that the frozen assets will continue to negatively impact investors. The Bank added that the chances of recovering the frozen assets are “extremely low” even though they were not legally confiscated.
On 31 January, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Russia’s Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov. During the meeting Krasnov presented a report on the partial mobilization. He said that Russia faces challenge in giving body armour and uniforms to the mobilised servicemen. Close to nine thousand citizens have been sent back home due to bad health and despite the challenges Russia has succeeded in giving winter uniforms and in ensuring the safety of warehouses.
On 30 January, RT reported on protesters took to the streets of Nuremberg, Germany to protest against Germany’s decision to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks. The protesters expressed concerns that Germany’s involvement in the conflict can lead to a massive war with Russia. The protest was peaceful with no clashes or arrests being reported by the police.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 31 January. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that Greece will not be supplying Ukraine with Leopard-2 tanks. Mitsotakis said: “We will not provide Leopard 2 tanks for the simple reason that they are absolutely necessary for our defence posture.” He added that Greece was willing to provide Ukraine will military equipment but not at the cost of its defence capabilities. Greece has previously sent military aid to Ukraine which included armoured personnel carriers.
On 31 January, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman said that the UK believes that it will not be practical to send UK’s Typhoon and F-35 fighter jet. The spokesperson said that the fighter jets are sophisticated and it will take months for the Ukranian Armed personnel to learn how to fly them. This comes as the US and Germany have refused Ukraine’s request for F-16 fighter jets. French President Emmanuel Macon said that while France is not opposed to proving the fighter jets added that it should not reduce France’s defence capabilities and increase the intensity of the war. Polish Prime Minister also said that Poland is open to sending the jets but added that any decision on this matter will be in coordination with other NATO countries.
On 31 January, the UK Defence Intelligence said that Russia’s attacks on Pavlivka and Vuhledar have escalated to a definitive assault in the past three days. Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade has been involved in this assault and has reportedly been successful in crossing the Kashlahach River frontlines. It is suspected that by this new push, Russia hopes to redirect Ukrainian forces from the Bakhmut sector. It added that while Russia will achieve local gains in the region, it will not be able to activate a significant breakthrough. Pavlivka and Vuhledar are located southwest of Donetsk city.
On 31 January, the Belarus Defence Ministry said that training in regional grouping has begun in Belarus. The Ministry said that the joint training of Belarusian and Russian troops under a united command will begin later this week. It outlined that both the militaries will conduct a joint security action of the Union States taking into account previous experience of armed conflict. The Ministry added that this joint training will lead to a joint operation exercise called “Shield of the Union- 2023” which will be held in September in Russia.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 31 January, an International Olympic Committee (IOC) Spokesperson reiterated that the sanctions placed on Russian and Belarusian officials are non-negotiable. This comes as Russian Olympic Committee Head Stanislav Pozdnyakov claimed that Russian athletes should not be subjected to different rules compared to other participants in the 2024 Paris Olympics. The main contested sanction levied by the IOC is that of Russian and Belarusian athletes competing under a neutral flag.
On 31 January, Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report outlining the alleged use of antipersonnel landmines by Ukraine which is leading to many civilians being injured. The report said that Ukraine had used several rocket-fired antipersonnel landmines near Izium which was occupied by Russia. This comes as Ukraine is a signatory to the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty which bans the use of such mines. The report highlighted that these mines had been deployed in nine different areas and had caused around 11 civilian casualties and injured 50 civilians including five children. The HRW stated that they had verified that the mines were used by Ukranian forces through civilian interviews who highlighted that the Russian forces in Izium had helped the injured and warned the civilians of the landmine danger. The report also outlined the continued use of antipersonnel and other similar types of mines in Ukraine.
References
Stefan Korshak “Ukrainian Cabinet’s New Conscription Rules: War-critical Workers May Avoid Draft,” Kyiv Post, 31 January 2023
“Kuleba names key issue on Ukraine-EU Summit agenda,” Ukrinform, 31 January 2023
“Armed Forces of Ukraine to get up to 140 tanks from partners in first wave,” Ukrinform, 31 January 2023
“Amount of frozen Russian investments revealed,” RT, 31 January 2023
“Hundreds protest against Germany’s policies on Ukraine,” RT, 31 January 2023
“Working meeting with Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov,” Kremlin.ru, 31 January 2023
Ahmet Gencturk “Greece will not provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks: Premier,” Anadolu Agency, 31 January 2023
Kathryn Armstrong & Jaroslav Lukiv “Ukraine war: Western allies send Kyiv mixed messages on war planes,” BBC, 31 January 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 January 2023,” Twitter, 31 January 2023
“Headquarters training of regional grouping of troops starts in Belarus,” tvr.by, 31 January 2023
“IOC Says Sporting Sanctions On Russia 'Not Negotiable',” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 31 January 2023
“Ukraine: Banned Landmines Harm Civilians,” Human Rights Watch, 31 January 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
BELGIUM
Government announces the closure of Tihange 2
On 31 January, Belgium announced its decision to close down its nuclear reactor Tihange 2 in four months. The reactor which is located 50 kilometers from Germany, was under constant pressure from the government to shut it down due to cracks observed in the pressure vessels, while Belgium has kept postponing the closure due to the supply of nuclear power. Belgium reliance on nuclear power has extended to half of the country’s energy requirements and now has passed the decision as move to cut down its nuclear power dependency. (“Belgium shuts down nuclear reactor on German border,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2023)
NORWAY
Loss of USD 164 billion recorded by Norway Sovereign Wealth fund
On 31 January, Deutsche Welle reported Norway's sovereign wealth fund a record loss of USD 164 billion for the year 2022, breaking the record streak. Norges Bank Investment Management owed this loss to the Ukraine war, high inflation, and the rise in interest rates. Regardless of the loss, the funds levied from the nation’s oil and gas industry were profitable as they stood at 12.43 trillion crowns. It aggregated a minus 15 per cent loss where the returns for the fund’s share in the year 2022 were outside of the energy sector. (“Norway sovereign wealth fund reports $164 billion loss,” Deutsche Welle, 31 January 2023)
The UK
Urged to move towards the green industry
On 31 January, the UK pushed to set out a more ambitious plan to cut back on greenhouse gases and move towards a much cleaner source of energy. It reckons that they would be left behind by North American and European trading blocs. Net zero economies are estimated around GBP 71 billion and the green incentive bill accounting for USD 369 billion. While the UK now generates 38 per cent of its renewable energy it does not want to lose out on the next wave of the green technology industry. Another competition the UK seems to be missing out on is an electric vehicle and battery making where the UK is failing to subsidize the conversion of scientific research into viable commercial ventures. (Jim Pickard, Camilla Hodgson and Harry Dempsey and Nathalie Thomas, “UK green industries fear threat from US climate incentives bill, Financial Times, 31 January 2023”)
INTERNATIONAL
Russia denies inspection of military sites seen as violation by the US
On 31 January, the US warned over Russia violating the “NEW START Treaty.” A US state department spokesperson said that Russia refused to allow inspection which bars the US from implementing the important rights of the treaty. This also endangers the US-Russia nuclear arms control. Earlier the inspection was stopped due to pandemic and the committee meeting between the US and Russia was last held in October 2021. The treaty is viewed as the most significant as it is the last factor holding both in the post cold war period. It limits both the US and Russia to hold 1550 nuclear warheads and 700 ballistic missiles. The US is observed to be keen to re-negotiate the START treaty which is about to expire in 2026. (“US says Russia violating New START nuclear treaty,” Deutsche Welle, 01 February 2023)
NATO and Japan discuss strengthening of transatlantic and Indo-Pacific relations
On 31 January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo. Furthering the transatlantic and Indo-Pacific relationship they discussed the ambition on strengthening their relationship. The Secretary-General stated “No NATO partner is closer or more capable than Japan. As they acknowledged the rising threat from China's aggressive behaviour to North Korea's military provocations and the shared agreement against the Ukraine war as an international challenge supporting the strict sanctions Japan imposed against Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war.” (“ Secretary General in Tokyo: No NATO partner is closer or more capable than Japan, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 31 January 2023”)